The 2026 midterm election results ended up so lopsided for Democrats that it might seem beside the point to examine how various groups voted or shifted.
As one of those libertarian-ish independents that find both parties to be a mixed bag that swung to the Dems for the usual reasons, some questions:
1) I see a lot of fretting from the GOP that this is a permanent or at least very sticky shift, largely due to perceived demographic shifts (and immigration/election-stealing BS). My response is that the "between the 40 yard lines" middle and independents could very well swing the other way in two years. Setting aside the usual inertia of the Senate due to its 6-year terms, how likely is this?
I know my vote will be in play. What about others?
2) The GOP pretty much recovered from Watergate in 6 years. Of course, Jimmy Carter was not that strong of a candidate heading into 1980, and they ripped the Nixon Band-Aid off pretty quickly with is resignation and Ford taking the hit for his pardon. What would the expected recovery time of the GOP? Does the clock start now or when Trump leaves office (however that happens)?
I certainly hope the GOP learns its lessons from its time with Trump; I don't see any other choice for the GOP, and I would expect them to remain in the wilderness until they do so.
3) Are there any issues coming to the fore that could permanently weld younger voters (Millennials and younger) to the Dems, much as how the Greatest Generation became loyal Dems, not to mention the 1950-1953 Boomer cohort because of Vietnam/draft/Nixon? Strauss and Howe would say that the Millennials would go as the Greatest Generation did, while GenZ would start out liberal and trend hard conservative as they aged as the Silent Generation did.
4) What does the potential leadership of a post-MAGA GOP look like? Kemp and Youngkin are obvious candidates, with DeSantis, Rubio, and Haley also possible depending on how much daylight they can put between themselves and Trump. I could see Vance becoming persona non grata very quickly; indeed, that might be the only thing stopping a bipartisan impeachment, unless something really weird happens and Vance gets impeached too, and Hakeem Jeffries or his replacement becomes president. The GOP might be willing to accept that if they want to hit fast-forward through the bad parts.
I don't necessarily want the GOP to regain power, but I do want it to be at least viable enough to serve as a check on any excesses from the Dems.
I know it may be horribly premature to ask any of this; however, for its sake I hope the GOP is already thinking about all of this.
"I don't necessarily want the GOP to regain power, but I do want it to be at least viable enough to serve as a check on any excesses from the Dems."
I've been a liberal Democrat since the 1960s and I have always felt this way. But it presumes that the future GOP will represent a more or less responsible conservative standpoint. Things began to change in the mid-1990s, and when GOP opposition united against Obama's ACA proposal, which had been carefully tailored to anticipate conservative objections, with the purely political goal of bringing down the Obama presidency, the party's commitment to blocking all Democratic-sponsored legislation, rather than contributing negotiated changes to protect against policies developed with liberal tunnel vision, ended its constructive role. (And during the MAGA era, the very idea of a constructive GOP opposition was virtually impossible, as James Lankford learned.)
Overall, Jabster, I think this is a really good comment.
Independent here, no lean, used to be far-Left Liberal type...somehow this election leaves me rather distressed and worried. I get that everyone voted AGAINST the Trump administration policies, which is roundly deserved, and not especially FOR Democrat policies. And yet...the Dems have not changed at all, everything independents (and others) dislike about therm is still in play. After this election, Dems are already tripling down on their insane policies, plus we now have the further craziness of the DSA and these Muslim politicians to deal with.
This bothers me. Hard to believe voters in these numbers support the kind of things Democrats are pushing. If not, then we'd better pull ourselves together and let them know that they are no more acceptable to the general public than the Trump administration is. Something is really going wrong here, and this election has only highlighted it for me, not made me feel like a decent change is in the wind.
Can you speak to the turnout rates of independent voters verses party people. And perhaps harder to say with confidence, what motivates an increase in independent turnout.
Unfortunately, it’s hard to accurately measure independent turnout since the states vary so much in how or if they count them. For those that do accurately capture independent voters, we probably need to wait for more validated data in a few months for sharpest turnout comparisons.
Well, we will have some good data in Oregon Congressional District 2 to talk about really soon, based on some active outreach in our recent campaign! It'll be interesting to see.
As one of those libertarian-ish independents that find both parties to be a mixed bag that swung to the Dems for the usual reasons, some questions:
1) I see a lot of fretting from the GOP that this is a permanent or at least very sticky shift, largely due to perceived demographic shifts (and immigration/election-stealing BS). My response is that the "between the 40 yard lines" middle and independents could very well swing the other way in two years. Setting aside the usual inertia of the Senate due to its 6-year terms, how likely is this?
I know my vote will be in play. What about others?
2) The GOP pretty much recovered from Watergate in 6 years. Of course, Jimmy Carter was not that strong of a candidate heading into 1980, and they ripped the Nixon Band-Aid off pretty quickly with is resignation and Ford taking the hit for his pardon. What would the expected recovery time of the GOP? Does the clock start now or when Trump leaves office (however that happens)?
I certainly hope the GOP learns its lessons from its time with Trump; I don't see any other choice for the GOP, and I would expect them to remain in the wilderness until they do so.
3) Are there any issues coming to the fore that could permanently weld younger voters (Millennials and younger) to the Dems, much as how the Greatest Generation became loyal Dems, not to mention the 1950-1953 Boomer cohort because of Vietnam/draft/Nixon? Strauss and Howe would say that the Millennials would go as the Greatest Generation did, while GenZ would start out liberal and trend hard conservative as they aged as the Silent Generation did.
4) What does the potential leadership of a post-MAGA GOP look like? Kemp and Youngkin are obvious candidates, with DeSantis, Rubio, and Haley also possible depending on how much daylight they can put between themselves and Trump. I could see Vance becoming persona non grata very quickly; indeed, that might be the only thing stopping a bipartisan impeachment, unless something really weird happens and Vance gets impeached too, and Hakeem Jeffries or his replacement becomes president. The GOP might be willing to accept that if they want to hit fast-forward through the bad parts.
I don't necessarily want the GOP to regain power, but I do want it to be at least viable enough to serve as a check on any excesses from the Dems.
I know it may be horribly premature to ask any of this; however, for its sake I hope the GOP is already thinking about all of this.
"I don't necessarily want the GOP to regain power, but I do want it to be at least viable enough to serve as a check on any excesses from the Dems."
I've been a liberal Democrat since the 1960s and I have always felt this way. But it presumes that the future GOP will represent a more or less responsible conservative standpoint. Things began to change in the mid-1990s, and when GOP opposition united against Obama's ACA proposal, which had been carefully tailored to anticipate conservative objections, with the purely political goal of bringing down the Obama presidency, the party's commitment to blocking all Democratic-sponsored legislation, rather than contributing negotiated changes to protect against policies developed with liberal tunnel vision, ended its constructive role. (And during the MAGA era, the very idea of a constructive GOP opposition was virtually impossible, as James Lankford learned.)
Overall, Jabster, I think this is a really good comment.
Independent here, no lean, used to be far-Left Liberal type...somehow this election leaves me rather distressed and worried. I get that everyone voted AGAINST the Trump administration policies, which is roundly deserved, and not especially FOR Democrat policies. And yet...the Dems have not changed at all, everything independents (and others) dislike about therm is still in play. After this election, Dems are already tripling down on their insane policies, plus we now have the further craziness of the DSA and these Muslim politicians to deal with.
This bothers me. Hard to believe voters in these numbers support the kind of things Democrats are pushing. If not, then we'd better pull ourselves together and let them know that they are no more acceptable to the general public than the Trump administration is. Something is really going wrong here, and this election has only highlighted it for me, not made me feel like a decent change is in the wind.
Can you speak to the turnout rates of independent voters verses party people. And perhaps harder to say with confidence, what motivates an increase in independent turnout.
Unfortunately, it’s hard to accurately measure independent turnout since the states vary so much in how or if they count them. For those that do accurately capture independent voters, we probably need to wait for more validated data in a few months for sharpest turnout comparisons.
Well, we will have some good data in Oregon Congressional District 2 to talk about really soon, based on some active outreach in our recent campaign! It'll be interesting to see.