Almost by definition, independent Americans are not that engaged with politics and would rather talk about anything other than elections and the two parties. “How about those Brewers?” “The ‘Hunter’s Moon’ sure was pretty.” “Praying for the Pope to get over his cancer.” “Gas is mighty expensive.” “Wonder if El Niño means more snow or more rain this winter?”
Independents aren’t blasé about their citizenship. They are patriotic Americans who feel a duty to their country. They just don’t find much meaning in the partisan warfare that defines congressional elections.
Consequently, final pre-election polling from NPR/PBS News/Marist shows less than four in ten independents (which constitute 30 percent of national likely voters in this survey) saying they have been following the midterm election in their state “very closely,” compared to roughly half of Democrats and Republicans. More importantly, only 48 percent of independent voters say they are “very enthusiastic” about voting this November versus roughly seven in ten Democrats and six in ten Republicans.
Lots of independents aren’t feeling it this cycle.
Why might this matter? Well, as I’ve documented a few times this fall at Free Agent Politics, independents are deeply unsatisfied with the state of the economy and the cost of living, and many disapprove of Donald Trump’s tenure as president so far. By a 52 percent to 39 percent margin (+13) in this survey, independents say they would vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress in their district over the Republican one. If independents vote like this, Trump and Republicans could be in real trouble next week.
Yet whether a critical mass of independents actually turns out to vote remains an open question.
Consider this: only 17 percent of independent likely voters say they had already voted by the time this survey was fielded in the third week of October, compared to 29 percent of likely Democrats, with a full 36 percent of these independents saying they are planning to vote on Election Day and others having some plan to vote early either in-person or by mail.
When people tell pollsters they intend to vote, things often intervene between their stated intentions and actually casting a ballot. If an independent is kind of ‘meh’ about the election to start with, the likelihood of their not voting increases.
Midterm elections are heavily influenced by partisan turnout. Democrats are highly motivated to vote this year, while Republicans are expressing lower enthusiasm than their rivals, and independents are the least motivated of the bunch.
In general, lower turnout among independents probably won’t matter that much unless these potential drop-off voters are disproportionately concentrated in highly competitive congressional districts—a possibility that is difficult to assess using surveys alone. However, the impact of potentially lower independent turnout in some critical Senate races in Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, or Texas could be significant. If independents are contributing to Democratic leads in many of the pre-election polls in these states, given their overall displeasure with Trump and Republicans, then noticeably lower turnout could play a decisive role in very tight races.
So, if one of the better scenarios for Republicans occurs on Election Day—e.g., not a total blue wave and maybe holding the Senate—it is possible that lower turnout among independents and robust Republican turnout could combine to offset Democrats’ enthusiasm advantage. Conversely, if Democrats do go on to romp next Tuesday—meaning large House and Senate shifts—fed-up independents who overcome their apathy and vote against the incumbent party surely will play a role in the outcome.
Part of the problem is the team approach to politics. I don't really like everyone either on the Red Team or the Blue Team. Both teams have good ideas. And there are some politicians worth voting for on both teams. But this sort of idea is anathema to people playing the team game. It doesn't just bore me, it upsets me.
Apathetic independent voter here in Texas. I do LOTS of work on reforming our system and educating myself on what I see as the most important policy issues. Yet off the top of my head, there is no candidate on my ballot I am excited to vote FOR. There are several (from both parties) I will vote AGAINST. I WILL vote, though not til Tuesday given my lack of enthusiasm.