Many political independents gave Donald Trump a second chance when they helped to elect him president in 2024. Fed up with Joe Biden’s economy, inflationary policies, border failures, and age-related deceptions, independents were divided in their presidential vote, but Trump won enough of their support to help secure electoral redemption, including victories in all seven swing states and the national popular vote. Along with independents, Trump improved his margins among several critical demographic blocs, including black, Hispanic, and younger voters.
Coming into his second term, Trump was poised to solidify his victory, and perhaps consolidate gains with independents and others, by delivering on his key promises on immigration restrictions, cost-of-living issues, and getting America out of foreign wars.
Less than 20 days before the 2026 midterm elections, it is abundantly clear that President Trump has failed to meet the expectations of most political independents overall and on many key issues, with the exception of border control. According to a recent Fox News poll, only 22 percent of independents approve of the job President Trump is doing in office while 78 percent disapprove. Eighty-three percent of independents disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy, 89 percent disapprove on inflation, 80 percent disapprove of his tariffs, and 79 percent disapprove of his foreign policies.
But independents’ disappointment with Trump goes beyond policy disagreements. It also reflects serious doubts about whose interests he is serving.
Looking at recent AP-NORC data on his presidency, independents overwhelmingly view President Trump as self-serving and not focused on people like them or the country as a whole. More than half of independents say that Trump prioritizes his personal business interests “a lot” and nearly half feel similarly about Trump’s focus on the business interests of his friends and family.
In contrast, only four percent of independents believe Trump has prioritized the interests of people like them “a lot” and nine percent feel that way about his focus on the country overall. Likewise, half of political independents believe Trump has done something illegal or unethical in connection with allegations that he has personally profited from the presidency. Only 12 percent believe Trump has done nothing wrong.
Keep in mind, independents are not “resistance” types. These voters do not particularly like Democrats and they were much more open-minded than Trump’s partisan opponents about the prospects of his presidency when he started out last year.
Trump enjoyed a decent amount of goodwill from many independent voters—and he completely squandered it.
It remains to be seen what exactly happens on Election Day in a few weeks. Perhaps the president’s base turns out in better numbers than expected, or maybe Democrats and independents who oppose Trump and congressional Republicans don’t turn out so well.
Either way, divided government in some capacity appears likely going into 2027. Republicans will then face a huge task convincing political independents to give them another chance ahead of 2028, especially as Trump battles it out with his opponents over his final two years.
Again, Democrats are deeply unpopular with independents. The current movement against Republicans reflects widespread dissatisfaction with Trump’s job performance, not necessarily renewed confidence in the Democratic Party or its promises. Political free agents are mostly rejecting the party in power, not embracing the opposition.
Whatever Trump thinks he is accomplishing these days, he is leaving Republicans in a poor position with independents. Whether it’s Vice President Vance or Secretary of State Rubio leading the charge in the next presidential election, the party must demonstrate through concrete results that it deserves another four years running the government.
Barring those policy improvements, if either Republican fails to establish a unique political identity and distance himself from the most unpopular elements of Trump’s presidency in 2028, the party will struggle with independent voters, just as Biden’s unpopularity weighed on Harris in 2024.
Compared to perfection, a huge disappointment; compared to the past democrat administrations, the second coming.
Sadly it turned out that Trump's word was no good. He's a promise breaker, not a promise keeper.