The 2026 midterms mark the fifth consecutive election in which Republicans lost the overall independent vote, according to past exit polls and the new Voter Poll (which combines in-person exit polling with a pre-election survey to better account for early and absentee voters) conducted by SSRS.
I see independents being in charge as a good thing.
The politicians almost always vote in a block. When you elect them you're voting for the whole party platform although you may disagree with 20-40% of what that means.
The real power brokers are the 10-15 in Congress that often don't follow the party 100%. The rest are a rubber stamp.
Not sure there is really such a thing as “independent” except in name. Very few voters agree with every, and maybe not even most, of their nominal party’s positions on every issue - no doubt there are pro-lifers who support Medicare for All, people who oppose tariffs but support continuing aid to Israel, etc and etc.
The interesting thing about how “independents” broke in the Senate races is that moderate candidates did considerably better with them than progressives.
Maybe “independents” are more accurately characterized as a fraction of the unreliable, mixed-views centrists who also make up the majority of people who identify with both parties and are despised and ignored by party activists and true believers.
Yes, the two parties are clearly not getting a clue from the midterms. Neither side has stopped to think what this really means, and to try to do something sensible. Why we should expect sensible from our government at this point, I don't know, but one keeps hoping!
Sincere question - if the R’s can’t seem to get to the 50% mark of the independent vote, just how truly “independent” are those voters? Or are they simply loathe to be categorized?
Acknowledged, but since 2008, voters identifying as D has declined about 10 points (Gallup) to about 27%, while independents have grown from roughly 35% to 43% currently, essentially indicating - and this is a VERY broad and elementary comment - that this was simply a dissociation from the direction the D party was taking. Basically a message that the party could not reliably assume they would vote D regardless of candidate or policy, not necessarily a move to be truly independent. And while those independents slightly edged to “lean R” in ‘24, how much of that was driven by the completely disastrous management of the top ticket? I do hope that the trend of younger voters to be non-party affiliated continues and forces a move to more independent candidates as our two party system has become the nightmare feared by many of the nation’s founders.
The data presented in your article doesn’t support your title. It shows that the GOP can narrowly lose independents and still win.
It would require a deeper dive but my gestalt is that the data will show that doing well with independents will more than make up for your base staying home. And that your base showing up won’t make up for losing independents by a large margin.
It says that explicitly in the article. The title just indicates the main thrust of the group which has been divided or heavily Democratic in recent elections, although Republicans won independents by 19 points in 2010. But yes, independent turnout and vote choice interacts with partisan trends. It’s such a large pool now that their movements really matter.
I don’t feel like we are getting a break from politics at all! Driving cross country and it seems like the news and podcasts are full on 2028. Of course, I can always switch to Yacht Rock Radio… my bad for being a news junkie.. also who thinks Schumer will be out?
I see independents being in charge as a good thing.
The politicians almost always vote in a block. When you elect them you're voting for the whole party platform although you may disagree with 20-40% of what that means.
The real power brokers are the 10-15 in Congress that often don't follow the party 100%. The rest are a rubber stamp.
Not sure there is really such a thing as “independent” except in name. Very few voters agree with every, and maybe not even most, of their nominal party’s positions on every issue - no doubt there are pro-lifers who support Medicare for All, people who oppose tariffs but support continuing aid to Israel, etc and etc.
The interesting thing about how “independents” broke in the Senate races is that moderate candidates did considerably better with them than progressives.
Maybe “independents” are more accurately characterized as a fraction of the unreliable, mixed-views centrists who also make up the majority of people who identify with both parties and are despised and ignored by party activists and true believers.
Yes, the two parties are clearly not getting a clue from the midterms. Neither side has stopped to think what this really means, and to try to do something sensible. Why we should expect sensible from our government at this point, I don't know, but one keeps hoping!
Sincere question - if the R’s can’t seem to get to the 50% mark of the independent vote, just how truly “independent” are those voters? Or are they simply loathe to be categorized?
Republicans won independents by 19 points in 2010.
Acknowledged, but since 2008, voters identifying as D has declined about 10 points (Gallup) to about 27%, while independents have grown from roughly 35% to 43% currently, essentially indicating - and this is a VERY broad and elementary comment - that this was simply a dissociation from the direction the D party was taking. Basically a message that the party could not reliably assume they would vote D regardless of candidate or policy, not necessarily a move to be truly independent. And while those independents slightly edged to “lean R” in ‘24, how much of that was driven by the completely disastrous management of the top ticket? I do hope that the trend of younger voters to be non-party affiliated continues and forces a move to more independent candidates as our two party system has become the nightmare feared by many of the nation’s founders.
Republicans lost them this year.
The data presented in your article doesn’t support your title. It shows that the GOP can narrowly lose independents and still win.
It would require a deeper dive but my gestalt is that the data will show that doing well with independents will more than make up for your base staying home. And that your base showing up won’t make up for losing independents by a large margin.
It says that explicitly in the article. The title just indicates the main thrust of the group which has been divided or heavily Democratic in recent elections, although Republicans won independents by 19 points in 2010. But yes, independent turnout and vote choice interacts with partisan trends. It’s such a large pool now that their movements really matter.
I don’t feel like we are getting a break from politics at all! Driving cross country and it seems like the news and podcasts are full on 2028. Of course, I can always switch to Yacht Rock Radio… my bad for being a news junkie.. also who thinks Schumer will be out?
Like that he is being challenged.