The fact that Trump has been behaving like a serious lunatic for much of his second term is the ONLY reason the increasingly radical Democratic party has any chance at all. He has been their saving grace. I have no doubt that middle of the road voters are horrified and sickened by Trump's daily antics. I know I am. And I will never vote Democrat again. But many will.
When considering the overwhelming negative coverage of Trump’s and his second term, it is amazing the president isn’t even more under water. From ChatGPT “ABC + CBS + NBC: 7.8% positive / 92.2% negative, or net –84.4 points toward Trump, for Jan. 20–Apr. 9, 2025..”.
More American adults get their news from social media than TV in general and of those who rely on TV more watch Fox and CNN than the three broadcast networks.
“one would expect partisans and partisan leaners to approve or disapprove of a sitting president regardless of what he actually does.”
This strikes me as inaccurate if not unfair to independents who lean toward one party or the other. The fundamental difference between the two groups is that leaners are willing to approve or disapprove of politicians regardless of party based on what they do and the results of their policies. It’s actually the friction this causes with partisans that makes leaners independents, despite being 70% or so in agreement with one party.
For an excellent article on how the Dems can (and can't) appeal to disaffected Trump voters and independentsa, see The Guradian: Gaustella and Etleston "We surveyed 6,000 Americans. Here is the winning message for Democrats"available on realclearpolitics today.
Fewer Independents surveyed, over the years say: “they have “a great deal” or “a fair amount” of trust in the mass media to report the news fully, accurately and fairly.” According to a Gallup report.
42% in 2018 → 36% in 2020 → 31% in 2021 → 27% in 2022 → 29% in 2023 → 27% in 2024 → 27% in 2025.”
What about independents’ trust in government? Maybe a combination of declining trust would be a good independent voter prediction tool, more than just the president’s approval rating.
Very interesting, but hardly surprising. Especially since Reps repeatedly neglect to mention one of their largest accomplishments. Oil production is absolutely soaring.
Oil wells do not materialize over night. They fight layers of regulation, that take years of battle, to say nothing of financing. The oil business is now largely reaping the rewards of the return of Trump 1 oil policy, that Dems quietly attempted to kill.
During Biden's term, Dems sought to limit oil production with a thousand small cuts and a few big ones. Dems quietly erected oil production roadblocks, hoping to permanently increase oil prices to curtail US use, spur increases in renewable funding, and nudge more US drivers, permanently, into EVs. If Woke 1 was crazy, Net Zero was next level insanity.
The oil industry managed high output, even with Dem wind in their faces. Now, with the return of Trump policies, US oil production has hit ever new highs. With little fanfare, Trump even seems to have effected oil policy in other nations. Many, suddenly, are acknowledging energy reality.
After the EU recently announced an Arctic drilling ban, within days, the Norwegians reminded Brussels they were not an EU member, and would be drilling in the Norwegian Arctic, where it was safe and reasonable, to do so.
Then, as if the Norwegians could not resist trolling Brussels, they noted if the EU disagreed with Norse rigs in the Arctic, the EU was free to ban the purchase of Norwegian oil. Then they laughed.
Norway supplies nearly 1/3 of all EU and British oil. Especially with Putin perpetually at war, the EU is hardly in a position to dictate Norwegian oil policy, unless they desire a return to candles and equine powered machinery. Norway even recently admitted their desire to be Europe's "Green Battery" was flawed, unrealistic policy. It would appear even the world's most polite Climate Warriors, are now dedicated to ever more oil production.
All of the above is incredibly fortunate for the US and the world, but it is unlikely to help Reps in the midterms. Unless Reps can explain, while current high gas prices are temporary, impending low energy costs, right around the corner, should last a very long time, once Iran is behind us and Dem energy insanity, disappears forever.
I am “independent” as defined. I am probably center right if a label was required. I really dislike the DSA and the progressive wing of the Democratic Party and I am pro Israel
However
If I had to chose between an anti Israel DSA candidate and a Republican of the Trump persuasion and it made a difference in control of the House or the Senate, I would vote 🗳️ for the DSA candidate
Interesting, thanks. Seems consistent with the data from AP-NORC. Many free agents not at all happy with Trump and would prefer a check on him even from people they otherwise dislike. The independent’s dilemma is constant.
for 2028? both parties? Picks? Who i like or who is likely? For the Republicans it is a choice between Scylla and Charybdis, ie Vance and Rubio unless some knight in grey armor rides to the rescue. As between those 2 I would pick Rubio. For the Dems, the person I like, a lot, if Ossoff. He has one big problem. He is jewish. The dems have gone crazy on the subject of Israel and there is an unprecedented level of bi-partisan anti semitism going around To win a primary you had to be against "the genocide". Harris picked that pumpkin Tim Walz instead of Josh Shapiro for the same reason and things have only gotten worse. I lived in CA for over 35 years and am skeptical of him and whether a CA Democrat can win the electoral vote. I also do not think he has been a great governor. Harris? not thank you. Word salad, not a major intellect, although that does not seem to be a requirement. Other names would include Andy Beshear, Mark Kelly, Gina Raimondo. Not a fan of JB Pritzker. So I am a man without a country, party or candidate other than this cruel madness must end.
I certainly understand how someone who self describes as center right would strongly dislike Vance, who is essentially socially conservative, fiscally liberal & an isolationist.
I’m having a much harder time squaring that circle with Rubio. What’s your beef with him? I.e. Why do you describe him as the lesser of 2 great evils as opposed to not your first choice.
I really don’t like either of them. Vance was a creation of Peter Theil , aka the anti-Christ. And what has Rubio really accomplished in his career? I would like someone who has not kissed Trumps ring or ass
The fact that Trump has been behaving like a serious lunatic for much of his second term is the ONLY reason the increasingly radical Democratic party has any chance at all. He has been their saving grace. I have no doubt that middle of the road voters are horrified and sickened by Trump's daily antics. I know I am. And I will never vote Democrat again. But many will.
When considering the overwhelming negative coverage of Trump’s and his second term, it is amazing the president isn’t even more under water. From ChatGPT “ABC + CBS + NBC: 7.8% positive / 92.2% negative, or net –84.4 points toward Trump, for Jan. 20–Apr. 9, 2025..”.
More American adults get their news from social media than TV in general and of those who rely on TV more watch Fox and CNN than the three broadcast networks.
“one would expect partisans and partisan leaners to approve or disapprove of a sitting president regardless of what he actually does.”
This strikes me as inaccurate if not unfair to independents who lean toward one party or the other. The fundamental difference between the two groups is that leaners are willing to approve or disapprove of politicians regardless of party based on what they do and the results of their policies. It’s actually the friction this causes with partisans that makes leaners independents, despite being 70% or so in agreement with one party.
For an excellent article on how the Dems can (and can't) appeal to disaffected Trump voters and independentsa, see The Guradian: Gaustella and Etleston "We surveyed 6,000 Americans. Here is the winning message for Democrats"available on realclearpolitics today.
What about independents’ trust in media?
Fewer Independents surveyed, over the years say: “they have “a great deal” or “a fair amount” of trust in the mass media to report the news fully, accurately and fairly.” According to a Gallup report.
42% in 2018 → 36% in 2020 → 31% in 2021 → 27% in 2022 → 29% in 2023 → 27% in 2024 → 27% in 2025.”
What about independents’ trust in government? Maybe a combination of declining trust would be a good independent voter prediction tool, more than just the president’s approval rating.
All good points. And all probably have some impact on vote choice, support for third parties, and non-participation.
Independents or low information voters? I can never keep them straight.
Sounds like a skill issue
Very interesting, but hardly surprising. Especially since Reps repeatedly neglect to mention one of their largest accomplishments. Oil production is absolutely soaring.
Oil wells do not materialize over night. They fight layers of regulation, that take years of battle, to say nothing of financing. The oil business is now largely reaping the rewards of the return of Trump 1 oil policy, that Dems quietly attempted to kill.
During Biden's term, Dems sought to limit oil production with a thousand small cuts and a few big ones. Dems quietly erected oil production roadblocks, hoping to permanently increase oil prices to curtail US use, spur increases in renewable funding, and nudge more US drivers, permanently, into EVs. If Woke 1 was crazy, Net Zero was next level insanity.
The oil industry managed high output, even with Dem wind in their faces. Now, with the return of Trump policies, US oil production has hit ever new highs. With little fanfare, Trump even seems to have effected oil policy in other nations. Many, suddenly, are acknowledging energy reality.
After the EU recently announced an Arctic drilling ban, within days, the Norwegians reminded Brussels they were not an EU member, and would be drilling in the Norwegian Arctic, where it was safe and reasonable, to do so.
Then, as if the Norwegians could not resist trolling Brussels, they noted if the EU disagreed with Norse rigs in the Arctic, the EU was free to ban the purchase of Norwegian oil. Then they laughed.
Norway supplies nearly 1/3 of all EU and British oil. Especially with Putin perpetually at war, the EU is hardly in a position to dictate Norwegian oil policy, unless they desire a return to candles and equine powered machinery. Norway even recently admitted their desire to be Europe's "Green Battery" was flawed, unrealistic policy. It would appear even the world's most polite Climate Warriors, are now dedicated to ever more oil production.
All of the above is incredibly fortunate for the US and the world, but it is unlikely to help Reps in the midterms. Unless Reps can explain, while current high gas prices are temporary, impending low energy costs, right around the corner, should last a very long time, once Iran is behind us and Dem energy insanity, disappears forever.
Show us Congress' approval rating.
Weird thinking
I am “independent” as defined. I am probably center right if a label was required. I really dislike the DSA and the progressive wing of the Democratic Party and I am pro Israel
However
If I had to chose between an anti Israel DSA candidate and a Republican of the Trump persuasion and it made a difference in control of the House or the Senate, I would vote 🗳️ for the DSA candidate
Interesting, thanks. Seems consistent with the data from AP-NORC. Many free agents not at all happy with Trump and would prefer a check on him even from people they otherwise dislike. The independent’s dilemma is constant.
Just curious, assuming you have been voting since 2000, care to share your Presidential picks?
for 2028? both parties? Picks? Who i like or who is likely? For the Republicans it is a choice between Scylla and Charybdis, ie Vance and Rubio unless some knight in grey armor rides to the rescue. As between those 2 I would pick Rubio. For the Dems, the person I like, a lot, if Ossoff. He has one big problem. He is jewish. The dems have gone crazy on the subject of Israel and there is an unprecedented level of bi-partisan anti semitism going around To win a primary you had to be against "the genocide". Harris picked that pumpkin Tim Walz instead of Josh Shapiro for the same reason and things have only gotten worse. I lived in CA for over 35 years and am skeptical of him and whether a CA Democrat can win the electoral vote. I also do not think he has been a great governor. Harris? not thank you. Word salad, not a major intellect, although that does not seem to be a requirement. Other names would include Andy Beshear, Mark Kelly, Gina Raimondo. Not a fan of JB Pritzker. So I am a man without a country, party or candidate other than this cruel madness must end.
I certainly understand how someone who self describes as center right would strongly dislike Vance, who is essentially socially conservative, fiscally liberal & an isolationist.
I’m having a much harder time squaring that circle with Rubio. What’s your beef with him? I.e. Why do you describe him as the lesser of 2 great evils as opposed to not your first choice.
I really don’t like either of them. Vance was a creation of Peter Theil , aka the anti-Christ. And what has Rubio really accomplished in his career? I would like someone who has not kissed Trumps ring or ass